According to the Ericsson Mobility Report of November 2023, it is estimated that there will be 1.6 billion 5G mobile subscriptions worldwide by the end of the year. From 2022 to 2023, 5G mid-band population coverage increased from 10% to 30% (outside mainland China). And by the end of 2029, global data traffic consumption per smartphone is expected to reach 56 GB per month.
These figures and projections are a fascinating way of quantifying how far we have come in the history of wireless technology achievements, which has seen incredible evolution and change in cellular standards over the past 45 years.
Mobile phone standards
We believe this progress began in 1979 when NTT introduced 1G technology, which used analog transmission techniques for voice-only signal transmission. A lot has changed since then, but the development of mobile phone standards has launched a never-ending race towards increasing data speeds and data capacity.
This voice-only standard used Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) technology, with voice calls modulated to higher frequencies, around 150 MHz or higher, as they were transmitted between radio towers.
2G Wireless Telephony Technology: This technology emerged in the 1990s and enabled the first low bit-rate data services using techniques such as time division multiple access (TDMA) and spread spectrum code division multiple access (CDMA). 2G systems offered higher spectral efficiency, the first data services, and advanced roaming. Significantly, this was also the first year that a single unified standard, the Global Mobile Communications System (GSM), was offered. 2.5G Wireless Telephony Technology: General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) and Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) technologies were added to the existing GSM system, resulting in 2.5G technology with theoretical data rates of up to 384 kbps. 3G Wireless Telephony Technology: In December 1998, the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), known as the “Organizational Partners,” was founded. NTT DoCoMo launched the first commercial 3G network based on W-CDMA technology in 2001. This network offered high data speeds and features such as High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) which provided data transmission capabilities of up to 14.4 Mbps downstream and 5.8 Mbps upstream.Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Standard:In 2009, this standard was introduced which uses a new air interface based on the Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDMA) digital modulation scheme.
What is the current status of 5G standards?
There are currently a total of 63 Fifth Generation New Radio (5G NR) frequency bands allocated from 612 MHz to 7,125 MHz (a significant expansion from the existing 54 LTE bands), which will support the need for global roaming and faster data speeds.
But does this mean that wireless standards are finally ready for our needs? Has the 5G standard delivered on the growth it promised? These questions become even more pressing when you consider that Ericsson predicts that 58% of all mobile subscriptions will be 5G subscriptions five years from now, and more than 5.3 billion 5G subscriptions by 2029.
Further improvements to the 5G standard and additional frequency spectrum are needed to achieve these goals.
Release 14 marked the beginning of 5G standardization and promised to deliver significant speed and capacity improvements over 4G LTE. 5G was targeted to deliver peak data rates of up to 20 Gbps and average data rates of over 100 Mbps while supporting a 100-fold increase in traffic capacity and network efficiency. The targeted peak data rates were up to 20 Gbps on the downlink and 10 Gbps on the uplink, and were to be achieved in the mmWave frequency band.
Fast forward to October 2022, TSG SA WG2 Chair Puneet Jain provided an update on the working group’s work on Release 18 Stage 2. 3GPP Release 18 is branded as 5G-Advanced and is the latest 5G standard with a Rel-18 protocol coding freeze (ASN1 and Open API) in March 2024.
Figure 1: Timeline and contents of TSG Rel-18
https://www.3gpp.org/specifications-technologies/releases/release-18
5G solves problems
Even with the latest release, 5G networks still face significant challenges, including limited uplink, synchronization issues that lead to reduced coverage, capacity issues, hardware issues, and transport issues (interference with neighboring sites).
Simply put, 5G is still struggling to reach its full potential. To get a clearer understanding of 5G’s challenges, let’s look at average data rates and 5G capacity in traditional RF sub-10 GHz bands. GSMA Intelligence conducted research into 5G average speed constraints, surveying 24 countries to understand the benefits of adding 6 GHz spectrum to the existing 5G frequency spectrum.
This new spectrum was a key factor in helping to achieve 5G’s target download speeds and lower the cost of fiber-like fixed wireless access (FWA) services, with the additional spectrum above 6 GHz enabling each cell site to support 3.5 to 6 times more homes with 5G FWA.
The study also concludes that the mobile industry’s decade-long vision for connectivity, as defined by 5G International Telecommunications Union (ITU) requirements, has not been achieved: Without additional frequency spectrum, 5G average download speeds will not exceed 50 Mbps (Figure 2), a far cry from the original 5G promise of average data rates of 100 Mbps or more (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Average download speeds (Mbps) for scenarios 1, 2, and 3
Scenario 1: Bands n102 and n104 licensed for 5G; Scenario 2: Fully license-free; Scenario 3: Band n104 licensed for 5G
So where will this additional spectrum be found? In the chart below you can see a global mid-band snapshot of allocated and targeted 5G spectrum.
Figure 3: Mid-band 5G NR spectrum
Every few years, the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) meets to review and revise radio communication regulations along with international treaties governing the use of the radio frequency spectrum and geostationary and non-geostationary satellite orbits.
The last meeting was held in late 2023 to address the need for additional frequency spectrum and enable significant enhancements in the areas of artificial intelligence and augmented reality. If we look at the global mid-band snapshot spectrum chart, we can see that the 5G 6GHz n104 band is here, which was already allocated for 5G in China in July 2023.
The upper 6 GHz band for international mobile telecommunications (IMT) will soon be designated in Europe and Africa as well. In addition, the conference adopted an international treaty clause that explicitly acknowledges that this band is used by wireless access systems such as Wi-Fi. This means that countries, including the United States, will not license band n104. However, there are other ways to remain competitive on the global stage.
For example, the 2023 conference concluded that the sixth generation (6G) frequency range will be 6.4 GHz to 8.5 GHz. This additional 2 GHz frequency range will most likely be used for 5G-Advanced networks for improved speeds and capacity, as there is no need to wait for a “full” 6G standard specification before introducing the licensed 6.4 GHz to 8.5 GHz bands into the cellular standard.
What does the future hold for the 5G standard?
Data demand continues to drive the market and shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, average data consumption per user and per month is expected to grow from 5 GB in 2020 to over 250 GB by 2030.
This data demand is being driven by broadband FWA, automotive, emerging augmented reality services, and extended, virtual, and mixed reality applications. These XR services, along with artificial intelligence, are setting the stage for continued explosive demand and creating new demands for significant improvements to wireless networks.
Simply put, data centers and edge networks will help realize the true power and potential of AI applications, connecting the unconnected and bringing AI to your smartphone. While we’re not there yet, wireless networks can help deliver AI applications around the world directly to handheld devices, bringing huge benefits to our economies. Newly licensed frequency bands in the 6.4 GHz to 8.5 GHz range will be a key enabler in bringing AI to the edge of wireless networks, enabling ultra-wide range and massive connectivity.
