As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in the 2024 presidential election, their contrasting approaches to technology could dramatically change U.S. tech policy, especially if Trump wins.
The US President is a key figure in leading US policy on technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductor chips. The past four years of the Biden administration have focused on competing with China through promoting domestic chip manufacturing and implementing export controls, while at the same time challenging US technology companies on antitrust issues and leading by example in AI safety development by requiring federal agencies to follow guidelines on AI use.
If Trump wins the election, the US could see a decline in focus on regulating technology such as AI, accelerated trade restrictions with China, and a move to bring critical supply chains back home and protect national interests.
Regardless of who wins the 2024 election, it’s imperative that the US president guides the next generation of digital technology policy, or Europe will set the stage for tech regulation, said Tom Wheeler, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). The European Union has already adopted the EU AI Act and is in the process of implementing the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act, which regulate digital platforms.
If we can’t answer these questions, we are very close to a situation where Europe ends up writing the rules. That would be a tragedy.” Tom Wheeler, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution
Wheeler said U.S. leadership has largely ignored the changes that digital technology has brought to commerce and culture, but he believes that needs to change under the next administration.
“Are we going to keep arguing about privacy forever? Are we going to rely on antitrust laws that were written in a whole different era? How do we deal with the issues of trust and truth? For 25 years we’ve looked the other way,” Wheeler said. “If we can’t answer these questions, we’re getting pretty close to a situation where Europe ends up writing the rules, and that would be a tragedy.”
Biden and Trump talk climate, China, AI
Climate technology policy will be the biggest difference between the Biden and Trump administrations.
Biden signed the Inflation-Blocking Act, which provides incentives for companies to buy clean energy. In contrast, the previous Trump administration denied climate change and rolled back environmental protections to boost the natural gas, oil and coal industries.
Additionally, while the Biden administration has focused primarily on clean energy technologies like solar and wind, a second Trump administration may shift its emphasis to nuclear power, said Arthur Herman, senior fellow and director of the Quantum Alliance Initiative at the Hudson Institute, who also served on the National Security Council under the former Trump administration.
Indeed, Herman said nuclear power is likely to become a central part of America’s efforts to develop carbon-free energy under a Trump administration.
“Under Trump, nuclear power will rise to the forefront of energy and technology policy,” he said.
Herman said China will remain a major focus in the Trump administration’s second term. This will affect U.S. tech policy, which is already evident in Trump and Biden’s approach to China. Under the Trump administration, tariffs were imposed on Chinese products such as aluminum, steel and solar panels. Meanwhile, the Biden administration implemented export restrictions on advanced AI technologies to China.
“The Trump administration is going to be looking at China’s role with a certain degree of skepticism,” Herman said. “How do these technologies support or undermine our national interests, particularly in terms of China’s role as a strategic adversary and as a technological and economic competitor?”
Herman said climate policy and China are inextricably linked for the Trump administration, citing China as the reason Trump withdrew from the Paris climate accord on carbon emissions, which he believed would harm U.S. interests and favor China, he said.
“The Biden administration’s environmental policies in particular will be seen from Trump’s and the Republicans’ perspective as policies that favor China both economically and strategically,” he said.
AI has also been front and center for Biden and Congress in the last year, but Wheeler said AI regulation will be more affected by whether the House or Senate wins control after the November elections. The Biden administration has already signaled the White House’s limitations in regulating the use of AI.
“Everybody thinks the presidency is a position of great power,” Wheeler said. “Obviously, there’s only so much the presidency can command in these circumstances and legislation would be required.”
Return of domestic manufacturing and collaboration with major technology companies
The CHIPS/Science Act, passed under the Biden administration, aims to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Several companies have already received millions of dollars from the CHIPS Act to build semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the United States.
Herman said reshoring U.S. industry is an effort that is likely to continue under a second Trump administration, including a renewed focus on tariffs as a way to force international competitors to negotiate better terms for U.S. products and services.
But Herman believes that under a Trump administration, government funding for these efforts will be reduced, with a focus on “constructive tax policy” to fund technology research and development where private companies see opportunity. He expects the administration will encourage private industry to tackle technological challenges by “creating an environment that supports investment capital in these areas.”
Herman said there will also be differences in how Biden and Trump approach big tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta. Both administrations have targeted the companies over antitrust concerns, but the Biden administration has sought to partner with them to understand technologies like AI.
Herman said he expects a backlash against big tech companies in a second Trump administration in terms of their ability to influence regulation.
“Big tech companies will start to distance themselves and be viewed with suspicion,” he said.
Wheeler of the Brookings Institution said that ultimately it’s hard to predict how a second Trump administration will approach specific technology policies, given the administration’s history of making policy decisions personal. Wheeler noted that Trump has been angry at media outlets such as NBC and questioned whether the FCC should revoke the network’s license. He also noted that Trump opposed the AT&T-Time Warner merger because he dislikes CNN.
“This is a very volatile situation,” Wheeler said. “I think there’s no question that he’s going to campaign against the federal government, but at the same time, there’s the question of how he’s going to use that power for his own needs. Who knows what that might mean?”
For additional information on President Trump and President Biden’s approaches to technology policy, check out TechTarget Editorial’s Candidates’ Tech Postures Guide.
Mackenzie Holland is a senior news writer covering big tech companies and federal regulation. Prior to joining TechTarget Editorial, she was a general assignment reporter for the Wilmington StarNews and a crime and education reporter for the Wabash Plain Dealer.
