By Mark Saltzman | Special to USA TODAY
Self-driving cars
The autonomous vehicle revolution is on the horizon.
By Mark Saltzman, Special Correspondent, USA Today
The future of driving isn’t just about electrification: it’s also about automation.
Yes, driving hundreds of miles without using a drop of gasoline seems like the stuff of science fiction, but of course, with the growing popularity of electric vehicles (EVs), it is now possible. Soon, you’ll be a passenger, not a driver, in a self-driving car.
Imagine you hop in your driverless car one morning. Because it’s a weekday, the car will assume you want to go to the office unless you tell it otherwise. Once the car drops you off, instead of you having to pay a parking fee, it will return you to your home.
Or maybe your car becomes part of a city’s ride-sharing network, picking up passengers during the day and earning you money in the process. It knows to pick you up after work, when you’re done picking up your dry cleaning, so you can take a nap on the way home and refresh while you enjoy dinner with your family.
But how, when and where truly self-driving cars will become the norm is up for debate, but experts agree that they’re likely to happen in the “near future,” probably sooner than you think.
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Why self-driving cars?
According to a recent report from market research and consulting firm Renab Research, the U.S. self-driving vehicle market is expected to grow from $4 billion in 2021 to a $186 billion industry by 2030.
Self-driving cars are said to be safer vehicles in addition to being more convenient to drive.
After all, if human error accounts for 94% of all traffic accidents, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, it might make sense to rely more on technology to keep us safe.
Self-driving vehicles will not endanger the driver or others in accidents caused by potentially dangerous human behaviors or conditions, such as speeding, reckless driving, falling asleep at the wheel, distracted driving, or impairment by alcohol or drugs.
Self-driving cars could also reduce congestion on roads, as they could communicate with each other and reroute based on traffic, accidents, or construction conditions.
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How self-driving cars work
“Self-driving cars have a lot of benefits,” said Jason Fisher, executive chief engineer for autonomous driving at General Motors.
“Ultimately, we aim to eliminate human driver error, create more time and space for the things that really matter in life, and improve mobility for people who currently cannot drive, due to age, disability or other reasons,” Fisher added.
Thanks to on-board technologies such as cameras, radar, sonar, lidar, GPS and infrared sensors, these vehicles are able to sense their surroundings, avoid obstacles, comply with traffic laws and reach their pre-selected destination.
Fisher said commercial self-driving taxi services have already launched in major cities.
“Our autonomous ride-hailing partner, Cruise, is already providing paid rides on the streets of San Francisco, and we expect to continue to see growth in this area over the next few years,” he said.
Asked about the timeline, Fisher said GM aims to “deliver personal self-driving vehicles as early as the middle of the decade.”
So how far are self-driving cars currently?
Most major automakers already offer semi-automated, hands-free technology in their vehicles, explains Kristin Kolodge, vice president of automotive benchmarking and mobility development at J.D. Power.
“Think of it as an extra pair of eyes that can provide vehicle control, such as maintaining distance from the vehicle ahead, as a type of adaptive cruise control, maintaining lane position, and safely changing lanes.”
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“Right now we don’t have the ability to remove drivers. They can’t be distracted or not pay attention to the road,” Colodge added.
But it could happen as early as next year.
Nik Miles of Our Auto Expert, a 20-year veteran automotive broadcaster and commentator, agrees that while we’re still a long way from “Level 5” or “full self-driving,” we’re evolving from “Level 2” to “Level 3” (also known as “conditional autonomy”).
“Currently, if the driver isn’t looking ahead, Tesla’s Autopilot or GM’s Super Cruise will disengage and the driver must put their hands back on the wheel,” Miles said.
“Level 3 self-driving will be rolled out next year first in California and then in Nevada, where you don’t necessarily have to look at the road. [so you] For example, you can play Sudoku or watch videos,” Miles says.
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Even now, the number of places where hands-free driving is available is increasing.
GM said earlier this month that it will soon double its Super Cruise road network, adding hundreds of thousands of miles of road across the U.S. and Canada.
GM vehicles built on the VIP electric architecture will be the first to receive the update, delivered over the air at no additional charge, later this year.
Super Cruise currently works on divided highways (aka interstates) on the map, but the expansion adds several state and federal routes that combine undivided and divided highways, including the Mother Road (Route 66), the Pacific Coast Highway (CA Route 1), the Overseas Highway (US Route 1), and the Trans-Canada Highway, which runs through all 10 Canadian provinces and totals more than 4,645 miles.
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In addition to steering within the lane, Super Cruise will also accelerate or decelerate the vehicle and, in some models, can perform both driver-initiated and system-initiated lane changes.
What are the obstacles to achieving fully autonomous vehicles?
“The hurdles are multifaceted,” Kolodge said. “Obviously it’s technically difficult to ensure a high level of confidence that the vehicle will handle all conditions and that the systems will meet their performance.”
“Obviously, there are regulatory issues that vary from state to state, so that makes it difficult,” Colodge said.
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“Much of my research focuses on consumer barriers to acceptance, and the reality is that many people are skeptical of self-driving cars. Customers aren’t necessarily asking for this kind of technology,” Colodge says. “Fundamentally, they want more evidence and they want to know how it will benefit their lives. Plus, there are concerns about losing control and having an accident, or that the car could be hacked or hijacked.”
“So I think it will be some time before self-driving cars are fully adopted.”
As for state regulations and legislative hurdles, Miles cited revenue from bad drivers as a possible barrier.
“Consider that self-driving cars don’t break the law, and there are cities in the US that make almost 100% of their revenue from traffic violations like speeding and running red lights,” Miles adds.
Cost is another potential obstacle to the adoption of autonomous vehicles.
“These are advanced, complex systems and not only are we already in a semiconductor crisis, given that 50 percent of the world’s neon comes from Ukraine and is used to make semiconductors, Ukraine is in the middle of a war, so this just makes it worse,” Miles said.
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There are other issues, such as insurance and liability issues. “Most manufacturers don’t want to apply for Level 3 because the liability is on the manufacturer, not the individual,” adds Miles.
“We have a lot of things we need to work out as an industry, but we will eventually get there.”
Follow Marc on Twitter to see his Tech Tip of the Day posts: @marc_saltzman. Email him or subscribe to his Tech It Out podcast. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of USA TODAY.