The world is embracing new technologies as innovative solutions. From artificial intelligence to 5G capabilities, this wealth of new technologies is advancing civilization by introducing safer and more efficient features. And one prominent technology that will keep people safe on the roads is the autonomous vehicle (AV).
To better understand the evolving AV market, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce hosted an event to discuss the key findings and implications of the recently released Innovation Highway Report. Dr. Robert Shapiro, lead author of the report and president of SoneCon, delivered the keynote address, discussing the societal and economic benefits of AVs and their potential to make the United States a formidable contender in the race for global leadership in this market.
Being early adopters of new technology has its advantages
Self-driving cars were once a futuristic concept but are now becoming a reality. Though still in the early stages, autonomous vehicle technology has made great strides in recent years as governments around the world strive to adopt cutting-edge technology and become leaders in autonomous vehicle innovation.
“In a world economically organized around interconnected markets, companies and countries that take the lead in developing and adopting these innovations often gain a significant economic advantage — the first-mover advantage,” Shapiro explained.
While full adoption of AVs is expected to take 10 to 20 years, Shapiro noted that autonomous driving capabilities are already being phased in. He believes that once fully deployed, the technology could generate trillions of dollars in annual revenue due to its wide-ranging benefits.
“Experts break this process down into five levels of automation,” Shapiro explains. “Level 2, for example, is a car where certain automated features like lane keeping and adaptive cruise control work together while the driver handles everything else. However, we’re already seeing testing of Level 4 AV technology today, with vehicles capable of driving themselves in limited traffic and other conditions.”
As cars reach higher levels of self-driving, such as full self-driving at Level 5, they will incorporate more complex technologies such as LIDAR sensor systems, 360-degree radar, next-generation GPS navigation and infrared systems that analyze and transmit data to get passengers safely to their destination, Shapiro said.
AV adoption is likely to occur faster than any other new technology
Historically, consumers aren’t always quick to embrace new technology because the benefits are often not immediately apparent, but Shapiro believes the benefits of AVs are clear, which could result in an adoption process that is faster than that of computers.
“More than 90% of road accidents involve driver actions or errors. [such as] Drunk driving, speeding, [and] “Distracted drivers,” Shapiro said, “Level 5 AVs will eliminate all of these deficiencies, and people will soon see how AVS can dramatically reduce road accidents.”
He went on to explain the benefits the country could gain from achieving a 25% adoption rate of Level 5 autonomous vehicles.
“Using 2020 accident rate and cost estimates, 25% adoption would reduce approximately 1.5 million accidents per year, saving 12,000 lives per year, and [provide] That would be about $94 billion in economic savings,” Shapiro said.
AV adoption requires modernized safety standards and regulations
The report notes that AVs will have some negative impacts, such as increased electricity generation, but the benefits are expected to be unparalleled, from reduced healthcare and insurance costs to improved mobility for the underprivileged and environmental benefits such as reduced congestion.
“AVS would benefit the approximately 21 million Americans without a driver’s license and the 14.5 million households that do not own a car,” Shapiro said. “A 25% adoption rate of Level 5 AVs would result in an additional 2.4 billion vehicle miles traveled annually for people with disabilities, 4.9 billion vehicle miles traveled for seniors, and 4.6 billion vehicle miles traveled for non-drivers.”
But as new AV technologies are introduced, Shapiro believes government intervention will be necessary to achieve widespread public acceptance.
“We must consider which countries and companies will shape the future created by AVs – who will be first to bring safe, flexible technologies to market and establish the standards and regulations needed to ensure broad public adoption,” Shapiro said. “AVs’ data-intensive operations will generate vast amounts of personal and sensitive industry data for manufacturers, governments and government agencies… [so] The global leader in AV will also influence how that data is stored, accessed and ultimately managed.”
