Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
Last updated: January 2021
The first self-driving cars appeared in the 1980s in a project funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
The vehicle, called NavLab, looked like a mail delivery truck and bore little resemblance to Google’s self-driving car (without a safety driver) that first demonstrated on Arizona roads in 2017.
Since then, the technology has continued to evolve, giving rise to predictions about how self-driving cars will change the way we live and work.
Here are some of the more interesting predictions:
1. Traffic fatalities fall by 90%
Yes, that’s right.
The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) predicts that the widespread use of autonomous vehicles will significantly reduce the number of traffic fatalities.
On reflection, this prediction makes sense.
In 2017, 37,133 deaths were reported from motor vehicle accidents (94% of which were due to human error).
So a 90% reduction would save 30,000 lives per year.
#2. Harmful substance emissions reduced by 60%
Fewer accidents mean less traffic congestion and fewer emissions.
But this isn’t just because there have been fewer accidents.
According to Ohio University’s “The Future of Driving” report, the advent of self-driving cars will reduce harmful emissions by 60%.
Another key advantage of self-driving cars is that they have the potential to revolutionize traffic flow dynamics.
#3. 100% elimination of stop-and-go waves
Self-driving cars could potentially alleviate traffic congestion caused by stop-and-go maneuvers (where speed changes are caused by humans, not road accidents), according to a study from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
This not only saves people time, but it also reduces the time cars spend on the road, reducing emissions.
#4. 10% improvement in fuel efficiency
According to the RAND Corporation’s Autonomous Vehicle Technology Guide, autonomous vehicles are expected to reduce fuel consumption by 4 to 10 percent.
This is backed up by a study from Ohio University, which estimates that American drivers waste 3.1 billion gallons of fuel each year.
We need to consider the wider impact that improved fuel economy will dramatically improve the efficiency of our roads.
#5. Lane capacity increased by 500%
The same RAND report also predicted a potential 500% increase in lane capacity.
The state’s Smart Transportation Initiative puts that figure at 100% (still an impressive increase) but says traffic speeds could increase by 20% as a result.
#6. Travel time reduced by 40%
According to KPMG’s Connected and Autonomous Cars – The UK Economic Opportunity, journey times for UK citizens could be reduced by 40%.
result?
This could save £20 billion through increased productivity and better utilisation of people’s time spent travelling in vehicles.
Meanwhile, in the United States, self-driving cars are expected to save workers 80 billion hours of commuting time, generating a sustained economic benefit of $1.3 trillion.
Stay with us to discover that last point!
In addition to time savings, the benefits of autonomous vehicles also extend to significant financial impacts for consumers, including reduced insurance costs and overall savings in operating a fleet.
#7. Consumer savings of £5 billion
According to KPMG, in the UK, reduced insurance premiums, running costs and parking charges could save the UK consumer market £5 billion a year.
But there’s more.
Self-driving cars are also expected to solve the “last mile problem” – the struggle of people to travel the final mile between their home and a public transport drop-off point.
They are meant to complement public transport, taking advantage of reduced traffic and the ability of self-driving cars to find and park on their own.
Additionally, the use of self-driving taxis is predicted to reduce taxi waiting times by 88% and parking space by 15%, improving mobility for seniors in an ageing society.
Benefits of Self-Driving Cars and related topics:
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