As for the Google Car, one of its benefits would ostensibly be to ease congestion: cars could be driven at very close speeds without nasty human randomness (the kind of randomness that plagues the clean models that engineers favor) causing problems.
In other words, current roads will be able to handle much more traffic. Shoulders and lanes may no longer be necessary. The very idea of tolerant design is a relic from a more barbaric time in history.
So if this reality comes true, will all the billions of dollars engineers have spent predicting additional lanes be refunded? Of course not. Do our future plans account for this possibility? Of course not. We’re just predicting traffic volumes based on the best data available, Chuck…. we’re not predicting the future (as engineers say while recommending billions of dollars of spending based on future projections).
My second observation is more human (engineers are pseudo-humans): when I hear people talk about the Google Car, they seem to believe that the world will work the same way it does now, but with a computer driver and you can check your email and watch sitcoms on your commute. I think this is a very narrow interpretation.
Why leave an expensive car sitting around transporting other people while you go to work? You can track it, monitor it, and return it exactly when you need it. You might not like it, but others will. They will be happy to pay more, which will drive innovation and conversion rates. This will completely change the way cars are financed and sold.
This will also change how parking is used; there will be less need for parking. Cars will be dropped off at the door and just rotate around, leaving them in an available space on the street, maybe a mile away, and coming back to pick them up when they’re ready to go. This will certainly create a premium for well-connected space, further reducing the value of the big box store investments our community has spent years trying to attract.
Where I live, a disproportionate number of people own big trucks. Some of them do it to make up for other shortcomings, or just in case they need to haul a couch or a new refrigerator home. In a world where Google Car exists, SUVs will be a thing of the past. No more wasted space, just rent a big truck when you actually need it, for as long as you need it. The truck will show up where you need it, and go away when you’re done.
