When Ariane 6 suffered a malfunction on its maiden flight, the disaster seemed eerily inevitable.
Nearly half of rockets fail on their first launch, and after a rocky development spree and four years of delays, Ariane 6 seemed a prime candidate to join that roster of launches.
The rocket was ordered to create a European route into space, a continent that has lost independent access to space since the retirement of Ariane 5 last July.
Thierry Breton, the European Union’s internal market commissioner, described the problem as an “unprecedented crisis” – and a failure to launch on Tuesday would have made it even more serious.
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Thankfully, the setbacks were only minor.
Ariane 6 successfully launched and deployed a research satellite into orbit. Problems occurred late in the flight when the final part of the rocket failed to deorbit. However, the mission was declared a success.
“This is a historic moment,” said Lucia Linares, head of space transportation strategy at the European Space Agency (ESA). “This is good for Europe. This is good for the world.”
Ariane 6 is currently scheduled for its first commercial launch in December, with six more launches planned for next year and eight more in 2026.
Stefan Israel, CEO of Arianespace, the company that operates the rocket, said the problem “will not affect the next launch.”
His words came as a welcome relief to Europe’s space technology community, a sector with huge opportunities but one that desperately needs new launch infrastructure.
The Need for Ariane 6
Mark Bogett, CEO of investment firm Seraphim Space, was awaiting the launch with bated breath, and believes Ariane 6 will provide a major boost to space technology.
“Expanded access will undoubtedly accelerate the pace of innovation and adoption of new space technologies in Europe,” he told TNW.
Boget has big ambitions: through his firm’s investments, he wants to develop European startups into global sector leaders.
The plan had been stalled by lengthy delays to Ariane 6. While waiting, the companies had turned to other regional launch services, notably SpaceX in the United States.
Rockets can now eliminate that bottleneck: European space technology no longer has to rely solely on foreign providers, paving the way for strategic independence.
Ariane 6 launched on Tuesday from the European Spaceport in French Guiana. Credit: ESA/S. Corvaja and M. Pédoussaut
The new rocket could attract new business from domestic and international customers, and Ariane 6 could also reduce costs and wait times for startups planning to deploy payloads — assuming, of course, the service proves reliable and affordable.
The first commercial launches are eagerly awaited. A new space race is underway and Europe is in danger of being left behind.
Hopes and fears for European space technology
Space is becoming fertile ground for business growth: McKinsey and the World Economic Forum expect the global space economy to grow from $630 billion last year to $1.8 trillion by 2035. “New space is a multi-decade growth market,” Bogett says.
Europe’s rocket crisis is hampering access to that market: the continent is set to have just three successful orbital launches in 2023, the lowest number since 2004, while the United States will have 109, the most ever for a single country.
“The US dominates commercial space launch, driven by private companies such as SpaceX, which have revolutionized the industry with reusable rockets, drastically lowering costs and increasing launch frequency,” Jarkko Anttila, CEO of Finnish satellite startup Kuva Space, told TNW.
Although the US leads the market, Chinese rockets are also becoming increasingly successful: Last year, China carried out 66 launches.
China is also emerging as an attractive location for funding space technology, leading the world in private investment this year, totaling $1.7 billion, according to a new Seraphim study, ahead of the United States’ $1.6 billion.
Chinese companies raised two of the world’s largest funding rounds last quarter. The biggest was rocket company Space Pioneer, which raised $208 million. Satellite manufacturer Minospace came in second with $138 million.
In Europe, funding has not grown at the same pace: In 2021, investment volumes in the continent dwarfed all of Asia, but now the rankings have been reversed.
Asia is also rapidly closing the gap on Europe in the number of space technology deals, with the continent signing 150 deals in the fourth quarter of this year, compared to 149 in Asia.
Startups are hoping Ariane 6 will spark a new boom in European investment, and recent trends suggest their wishes may come true.
Preparing for takeoff
Bogett expects Ariane 6 to stimulate Europe’s space economy: “The proximity to launch facilities will allow for more integrated testing and iteration of new technologies,” he said.
European companies will also be able to reduce transport and logistics costs. Moreover, the launch capacity will enhance collaboration between launch providers, satellite start-ups and research institutions.
As the funding environment improves across the board, startups are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities.
Space tech has enjoyed a fourth consecutive quarter of investment recovery, with $2.4 billion invested last quarter, driving deal volume to an all-time high, according to the latest data from Seraphim.
The largest European investments were $100 million for British spacecraft builder Aalto and $93 million for Finnish microsatellite builder IceEye.
A growing number of venture capital firms are adding to the pool, including Alpine Space Ventures, which is planning big investments in Europe and just today closed a new fund of €170 million ($185 million).
Public investment is also increasing: ESA’s 2024 budget has risen to a record 7.79 billion euros ($8.49 billion), up 10 percent from last year.
But hopes that Ariane 6 will beat big U.S. rockets seem misplaced: Kuba Space’s Antilla warns that the disposable system cannot compete with SpaceX’s reusable rockets.
“The European Space Agency and Arianespace developed Ariane 6 for cost-effective launch, but it is not fully reusable and is primarily limited to use at the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana,” he says.
Still, the rocket has the potential to reignite European space technology, and Boget is convinced it will have a big impact.
“Having domestic launch capabilities will undoubtedly foster greater innovation in the European space sector and accelerate the pace of development,” he said.
The first commercial flights will provide a glimpse of what’s possible — or at the very least, give European startups a new avenue into space.
