The Manhattan Project was a response to German technological innovation and military might that unleashed nuclear physics on the world. Its success put the United States at the forefront of significant technological advances and demonstrated that technological innovation was at the heart of both economic prosperity and national security.
Today, in a new era of strategic competition with an authoritarian China, liberal democracies, including smaller groupings like Quad, AUKUS, and NATO, are identifying their own modern-day Manhattan Projects.
The Australian government announced earlier this year that it would invest around $1 billion in PsiQuantum, confirming that Australia is targeting quantum computing breakthroughs and seeking to lead a similar technological revolution.
The US quickly followed suit, announcing its own PsiQuantum partnership today. As one of just six advanced capabilities in AUKUS pillar 2, it’s worth noting that two of the AUKUS partners have invested nearly $2 billion in building the world’s first and second “fault-tolerant quantum computer” (FTQC), respectively.
Indeed, the only better strategic move for Australia than being a pioneer in this field would be for its ally and AUKUS and Quad partner the United States to join in. While both of these specific projects are being undertaken in collaboration with PsiQuantum, the ambition and drive to seek breakthroughs in all areas of quantum computing is in Australia’s favour, and the involvement of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the organisation that delivered the original breakthroughs in the internet, should give government, industry and other stakeholders the confidence to make further investments in the name of economic security.
Beijing’s Made in China 2025 plan identifies quantum computing as one of the priority industries. Success in this area of innovation will require investment at a national level and the use of international structures, including AUKUS Pillar 2, to incentivize the industry’s ambitious efforts and current limited talent pool.
The quantum approach that both governments have invested in is undoubtedly difficult to achieve. It requires the rapid construction of large-scale semiconductor manufacturing and cryogenic infrastructure (essentially super-sized refrigerators). There is a well-known skills shortage in the semiconductor industry, and the FTQC industry needs those same workers to manufacture parts. There is also a shortage of programmers who can develop algorithms that can run on full-scale FTQC that could lead to breakthroughs in reducing emissions or discovering new medicines.
Both countries started with PsiQuantum, but as with the original Manhattan Project, it will take a collaborative effort to succeed. With Australia and the US committed to bringing FTQC online within the next decade, it is important that we align with AUKUS in our alliance to drive rapid upskilling across the industry. This major investment will require more than just funding to support quantum industry and academic partners; it could also include reviewing immigration restrictions that impact workforce movement and training across Australia and the US, as well as facilitating pathways to better engage FTQC with industry to be ready to reap the benefits when the first machines arrive.
It is also critical to leverage the progress made under AUKUS, including ensuring that U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and export controls do not impede progress at the two FTQC locations in Brisbane and Chicago. This preparation and education of industry and government users of computers will ensure rapid progress in areas such as climate sustainability and medicines when the first machines come online, quickly realizing economic, social and national security benefits.
Australia’s investment in building the world’s first FTQC in Queensland and expanding industrial and academic activity in Brisbane is a significant step in leveraging a decade’s worth of public investment in fundamental research into quantum technologies, giving the country a globally recognised competitive advantage. Taking on global leadership in quantum investment ahead of the US shows Australia has learned the lessons of 30 years ago. The government missed out on investment in a University of New South Wales (UNSW) solar power research team that was supported to relocate to China and become a solar power giant.
DARPA’s announcement that it will focus its quantum computing efforts at the newly established Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park proves that Australia is leading the world in FTQC technology and is serious about gaining an advantage in the growing strategic competition with China. The Biden Administration implemented the 2022 Advanced Semiconductor Export Controls, aimed at preventing China’s military buildup, but this will only slow China’s military progress. Lacking access to advanced semiconductors, Beijing is accelerating its domestic semiconductor investments. Without our own innovation (including through AUKUS), China will catch up and may surpass U.S. technological advantages in certain military capabilities, such as AI and hypersonics, given its ability to hyperscale industries. Indeed, China has shown the world that this is its goal with its “Made in China 2025” plan.
Restrictions that deny China access to advanced semiconductors have created a brief window of opportunity for Australia, our national security partners in private industry and researchers to establish a decisive lead in quantum computing. The applications of quantum computing are limitless, and this opportunity will strengthen collaboration between Australia and its allies. For example, quantum communications could make secure communications nearly impossible to crack, protecting systems from malicious attacks from both quantum and classical computers.
Australia’s National Quantum Strategy demonstrates the government’s risk tolerance to pursue strategic investments that will create nation-critical capabilities that underpin our national security and way of life. If the world’s first quantum computer can be built in Brisbane, some argue, so can nuclear submarines, given the tripartite nature of AUKUS and the reality of working with an ally that has been building nuclear submarines for decades.
The consortium investment model preferred by both Australia and the US for their quantum efforts serves as an example of public-private research collaboration models in other technology sectors. In particular, the strong collaboration between industry and academia is evident from PsiQuantum’s recent announcement of partnerships with five universities in Queensland and a similar-scale academic engagement in Illinois, demonstrating that the two pillar technologies of AUKUS require engagement across industry, academia and government.
This is difficult to do at scale, but it can be done. Ideally, the new UK administration will follow a similar path, but one advantage of AUKUS is that it can draw on both collective and individual expertise.
This is Australia’s Manhattan moment – realizing the promise of quantum computing will require continued collaboration with our allies to reap the rewards of this bold investment.
