The US military plans to begin using thousands of autonomous weapons systems over the next two years to counter China’s growing power, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks announced in a speech on Monday.
The so-called “Replicator” initiative aims to work with defense and other technology companies to mass-produce affordable systems for all branches of the military.
Military systems capable of varying levels of independence have become increasingly common over the past decade or so, but the scale and scope of the US announcement makes it clear that the future of conflict has changed: the era of combat robots has arrived.
An idea whose time has come
The past decade has seen considerable development of advanced robotic systems for military purposes, many of which are based on improvements to commercial technologies that have themselves become more capable, cheaper, and more widely available.
More recently, the focus has shifted to experimenting with how to best utilize these in combat, and Russia’s war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the technology is ready for real-world deployment.
Read more: Ukraine war: Drones transform the conflict – on the frontline and beyond
Loitering munitions, a type of robotic aerial vehicle, are widely used to find and attack armored vehicles and artillery. Ukrainian Navy attack drones have crippled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, forcing manned warships to remain in port.
Military robots are an idea whose time has come.
Robots are everywhere
In her speech, Hicks spoke of the urgent need to change the way war is waged. In some somewhat unintelligible Pentagon-speak, she said the new replicator program was
We will field thousands of expendable autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next 18 to 24 months.
To break it down, “autonomous” means a robot that can carry out complex military missions without human intervention.
“Expendable” means that the robot is cheap enough that it can be lost at risk if the mission is of high priority. Although such robots are not designed to be disposable, they are fairly affordable so that they can be purchased in large numbers to replace losses in combat.
Finally, “multiple domains” means robots on land, at sea, in the air and in space – robots performing all kinds of tasks in all kinds of places.
Robot Mission
For the U.S. military, Russia is a “serious threat,” while China is a “challenge of pace” that will benchmark its own military power.
The People’s Liberation Army of China is seen as having a huge advantage in terms of “quantity”: the Chinese military has more troops, more tanks, more ships, more missiles, etc. The United States may have better quality equipment, but China has the advantage in quantity.
Project Replicator would rapidly build thousands of “expendable autonomous systems” to give the US the numbers it believes it will need to win a major future war.
The future war of greatest concern is a hypothetical battle for Taiwan, which some hypothesize could begin soon. A recent tabletop war game suggests that hordes of robots could be the deciding factor for the US in fending off a major Chinese invasion.
But Replicator is looking further ahead, aiming to institutionalize mass production of robots in the long term. Hicks argues:
We must ensure [China’s] Every day our leaders wake up, consider the risk of invasion, and conclude, “today is not the time.” And not just today, but every day from now until 2027, from now until 2035, from now until 2049, and every day beyond.
Brave New World?
One major concern about autonomous systems is whether their use can comply with the laws of armed conflict.
Optimists argue that robots can be carefully programmed to follow rules and may even be more obedient than humans in the heat and confusion of battle.
Pessimists counter that we can’t predict every situation, so the robots could misinterpret things and attack when they shouldn’t. They have a point.
Among previous autonomous military systems, the Phalanx close-range defensive artillery and Patriot surface-to-air missile have both demonstrated disappointing performance.
Read more: AI researchers should fight robots head on, not retreat
It has only been used in combat once, during the first Gulf War in 1991, when the Phalanx fired at chaff decoy clouds rather than countering incoming anti-ship missiles. Newer Patriots have proven effective at shooting down incoming ballistic missiles, but did shoot down two friendly aircraft, killing their crews, during the second Gulf War in 2003.
With clever design, future autonomous systems may be able to overcome these issues, but in his speech, Hicks pledged to a “responsible ethical approach to AI and autonomous systems,” suggesting that systems capable of killing targets would still need formal permission from humans.
Global changes
The United States may be the first country to deploy large numbers of autonomous systems, but others will soon follow, and China is an obvious candidate, given its significant strengths in both artificial intelligence and the production of combat drones.
However, much of the technology behind autonomous military drones has been developed for civilian use, making them widely available and relatively inexpensive. Autonomous military systems are not just for big powers, and many smaller nations could soon be adopting them.
Countries such as Libya and Israel have reportedly deployed autonomous weapons, and Turkish-made drones have proven to be playing a key role in the Ukraine war.
Australia is also one of the countries with a strong interest in the potential of autonomous weapons. The Australian Defence Force is currently building the MQ-28 Ghostbat autonomous fast jet aircraft, robotic mechanised armoured vehicles, robotic logistics trucks and robotic submarines, and is already using the Blue Bottle robotic sailboat for maritime border surveillance in the Timor Sea.
And in a precursor to Plan Replicator, the Australian government last month asked local companies for proposals on how to manufacture military aerial drones domestically in very large numbers over the next few years.
At least one Australian company, SYPAQ, is already on the move, sending a few cheap cardboard drones to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.
