The United Nations has declared 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. Its goal is to recognize “the importance of quantum science and the need for broad awareness of its past and future impact.” But why quantum? Why now?
Quantum science is complicated and strange. Concepts like entanglement, light existing as both waves and particles, and a cat in a box that is both alive and dead (until you observe it) are not easy to comprehend.
The wonders of quantum mechanics are currently being harnessed to build the first quantum computers, communications systems, and sensors, and one day may power the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI).
We are in the early stages of a costly and resource-intensive quantum race between world powers. The race for quantum leadership will play a major role in shaping Australia’s economic and national security policies for decades to come.
Follow the money
Large technology companies, major countries, and top research universities are racing to build the first commercially viable quantum systems. While opinions differ on whether the quantum race is a marathon or a sprint, some big bets are already being made.
CSIRO estimates that by 2045, Australia’s quantum industry could generate annual revenue of A$6 billion and create around 20,000 jobs.
Australia launched a national quantum strategy in 2023 to strengthen government support and position Australia as a “global quantum industry leader.”
Over the past two years, the Victorian government has invested $37 million in quantum startups. In April, the federal and Queensland governments jointly committed $1 billion to building the world’s first utility-scale quantum computer. That same month, the University of Sydney secured an $18.4 million federal grant to establish a national hub for Australia’s quantum ecosystem.
But understanding the quantum problem is about more than science, technology, or money. As with almost any powerful new technology, the question is not if the next quantum wave will be weaponized, but when.
Researchers from the University of Melbourne operating a quantum measurement system.
AAP Image/Courtesy of University of Melbourne
Quantum Science in National Security
Based on entangled quantum bits (“qubits”), quantum technology has the potential to exponentially increase computing power, transform communication networks, and optimize the flow of goods, resources, and money.
Diverse commercial industries such as telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, banking and mining (data and minerals) will all be transformed.
But what concerns our government and people around the world the most is the impact of quantum technology on national security.
Quantum radar, quantum code, quantum internet, quantum sensors and quantum GPS are being rapidly developed by militaries and defense industries around the world. Who gets there first (the quantum “haves”) could create new power asymmetries that could be dangerous for the rest of us (the quantum “have-nots”).
Quantum communication systems could provide completely secure and unhackable lines of communication – a prototype network already connects several major cities in China across some 5,000 km. However, there is a risk that quantum computers could eventually be able to hack traditionally encrypted messages in a matter of seconds – an event known as “Q-Day.”
Quantum AI is being developed to improve the performance of lethal autonomous weapons. Do we really want swarms of drones operating without human intervention on a networked battlefield?
Quantum sensors already in use today can measure magnetic and gravitational fields with ultra-high sensitivity, meaning they can accurately identify metals and large objects underground or underwater.
New advances in quantum sensing technology will have a significant impact on the endurance and reliability of Australia’s new fleet of nuclear submarines – a key consideration for the largest military investment in our nation’s history.
Now is the time to ask the hard questions
Nearly every new, complex technology has produced unanticipated consequences and unforeseen disasters. The Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and Fukushima accidents all illustrate the risks inherent in the early wave of nuclear technologies that were born out of quantum science breakthroughs.
Given the potential speed and network power of quantum machine learning and cloud computing, a malfunction in quantum artificial intelligence could begin as a localized incident and quickly escalate into a global crisis.
The blockbuster film “Oppenheimer” depicts how an early wave of quantum research made possible the atomic bomb and changed the international order forever.
The first use of nuclear weapons sparked a deep global debate on nuclear disarmament, led by many of the scientists who had worked on nuclear weapons development, but their voices were drowned out by terror and the Cold War, leading to a costly arms race and nuclear brinkmanship that continues to this day.
Asked about President Lyndon Johnson’s efforts to begin arms control negotiations in the 1960s, Oppenheimer replied:
It’s 20 years too late. It should have been done the day after Trinity. [the first nuclear detonation].
It would be a good idea to start now by asking the difficult questions of how next-generation quantum technologies will affect the prospects for global war and peace in the coming years.
This article was originally published on The Conversation by James Der Derian and Stuart Rollo of the University of Sydney. Read the original article here.
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